Hurricane Season starts on June 1st and goes to November 30th. Typically, the most active months are August, September, and October. In fact, August 15th-October 20th is the peak of the hurricane season. In the Atlantic Basin the 30 year average has been 14 named storms, 7 becoming major hurricanes, and 3 becoming major hurricanes, categories, 3, 4, and 5.

So far in 2023 there have already been 4 named storms. An unnamed storm developed in January. In June we have had 3 named storms. The question is does an active June and July mean the season will be above average?

This is actually a myth. Sometimes an active June/July has indeed been a sign of things to come. 2020 and 2021 had very active June and July's those seasons had way above average activity. On the other hand, there has been several instances of active June and July's not producing above average seasons. That is the main point of this post is to show active June/July's that did not produce an active season.

1957- The year 1957 saw 2 named storms in June. One was unnamed. The other one was the destructive hurricane Audrey. In 1957 the average season would have 9-10 named storms, 5-6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. However, due to a developing El Nino the season ended up being below average. 8 storms developed, only 3 became hurricanes and 2 became major hurricanes.

1960- had 3 storms develop before August. The 1960 season was strange as neither La Nina nor El Nino were present. La Nina typically enhances activity, and Neutral tends to favor average to slightly above average seasons. Despite the early activity the season was below average with 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. However, 1960 had the destructive hurricane Donna.

1968- had 3 named storms develop before August. Most of those developed in June. However, due to a developing El Nino the rest of the season had below average activity. 9 named storms developed, but only 4 became hurricanes, and none became a major hurricane.

1986- The 1986 season had 2 named storms developed in June. However, due to a strong El Nino the rest of the season was shut down. Only 4 more storms developed the entire season. Overall, 1986 was a way below average season with only 6 named storms, and 4 hurricanes. In 1986 the average was 10-11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major.

1997- 1997 saw 5 storms developed by August. Many thought 1997 was going to be a repeat of the very active 95/96 seasons. However, a very strong El Nino shut down activity. The rest of the season only saw 4 more storms develop. Overall 8 storms formed, and only 3 became hurricanes, and only 1 became a major hurricane.

As we can see sometimes an active June/July does not mean the season will be active. What really is more of a determining factor is what is going on in the ENSO Region (Equatorial Pacific) La Nina and Neutral tend to favor average to above average seasons. While most El Nino's feature below average seasons. A few El Nino's have produced above average seasons.

Basically, its very early in the hurricane season, so it is just a wait and see.