So I know it's the postseason for some teams, but for the rest of us, it's the offseason, so I started this thread. Use this thread to talk about varying topics in the offseason.

I'll start with this, a prediction game for where top free agents will go.

Mike Napoli, 1B, 31 - A lot of people will say Napoli is still a catcher, which is ridiculous. He's strictly a first baseman/DH now. And he's going to get good money. I see him staying either in Texas, or signing with the Yankees as a DH.

Adam LaRoche, 1B, 33 - $10MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout, I think this option gets accepted on the Nats part, but declined on LaRoche's part. It's a weak market, and LaRoche may decide he can get more on the open market, which is very possible, especially for teams looking for first base help (like the Red Sox) or DH help (like almost every team in the AL except the Red Sox). I think he stays with the Nationals, but can hope he comes to Boston.

David Wright, 3B, 30 - $16MM club option with a $1MM buyout, and I think they accept and work out an extension quickly. So why is he on the list, but not Cano, who is in a similar position? Because I think Wright gets signed long term, whereas Cano will not. We'll see Cano on the list next year.

Melky Cabrera, OF, 28 - Where can a player with PED issues play these days? Where is an outfielder even needed? Again, it's entirely possible the Red Sox try to jump on him (They only have 2 OF under contract for next year - Ellsbury and Kalish - and they may decide Kalish isn't ready, which he most certainly isn't.) but I think he lands in another ball park. Perhaps in Washington with the Nationals. They need another OF anyway.

Cody Ross, OF, 32 - He's staying in Boston. That's all there is to it.

B.J. Upton, OF, 28 - There are a couple of appealing places he could play, that aren't Tampa Bay... like Philadelphia. I think he lands with the Phillies on a massive overpay.

Shane Victorino, OF, 32 - I think he's staying in LA with the Dodgers, but let's explore the market. Who else could use a speedy outfielder who won't cost Hamilton or Upton money? One possible solution is the Atlanta Braves, who would probably love to have him in center field to take over for Michael Bourn, should they not get something done. Past them, I actually think the Cubs can be a player for him as well.

Josh Hamilton, OF, 32 - This one is anyone's guess. Almost every team in baseball would love to have him... on a short term contract. Three years is the most most teams will go to to snag him. He's going to want five years. The question is, who cracks and dishes out 23 million for his age 37 season? Well, looking at teams with money to spare, the top players will probably be the Red Sox (They have way too much money, they are getting one of the guys above. Gotta fill up the OF, 1B, and SP), the Orioles (may be pressured to spend this offseason, and OF would be an ok place to spend it), the White Sox (lots of money coming off the books), the Rangers (duh), and the Giants (Yeah, really). Most NL clubs probably won't get involved, especially on a long term deal, since there's no DH in the NL, and even though next year will feature interleague throughout the year, it won't feature enough games in AL ballparks to justify allowing a 37 year old Hamilton to roam their outfield in 5 years. He'll be a good DH.

David Ortiz, DH, 38 - He's staying in Boston. Leaving wouldn't make sense now.

Zack Greinke, SP, 28 - He's going to stay in LA. Whether that's as an Angel or a Dodger... well, that's up in the air.

Hiroki Kuroda, SP, 38 - Given the lack of pitching in New York, I think he is resigned in a heartbeat.

Jake Peavy, SP, 31 - $22MM club option with a $4MM buyout, the White Sox have already said they are denying the option. The question is, where to? Again, I'd love it if the Red Sox splurged on him, but I doubt they do. I think the Orioles and White Sox will make a run at him, but that he ultimately returns to the NL to remain dominant into his late 30s.

I was backseat modding.

bobq :

Backseat modding is not allowed.

Now stop spamming. Some people don't have teams in the post season, and this is THEIR place of discussion. So leave.

Those predictions sound good. However, I can't see Napoli going to NY, just because it seems like the Yankees have about 13 top ten homerun hitters, and I think A-rod will play some DH this year for them.

patar4097 :

I should have mentioned that Napoli would also have chances at catcher in NY. He's a first baseman, but he does know how to play catcher, so he could go if say Russell Martin leaves.

Few quick updates

- The Red Sox have traded for manager John Farrell.

The Boston Red Sox traded Mike Aviles to the Toronto Blue Jays for John Farrell and David Carpenter. They then proceeded to lock up Farrell for the next few years. This is intriguing for a few reasons. A lot of the struggling pitchers from the last couple seasons have a lot of respect for Farrell, and we could see them improving. Also of note, this makes the top SS on the Red Sox all glove no bat Jose Iglesias. At least he's not Bobby Valentine.

- The Arizona Diamondbacks took on Heath Bell

They got rid of an abundance (Chris Young, Outfielder) and added a buy low candidate, plus a shortstop (Heath Bell - reliever, and Cliff Pennington - Shortstop). The Athletics added Chris Young (their outfield features Cespedes, Crisp, Reddick, Moss... ugh too many outfielders.) and the Miami Marlins received 22 year old Shortstop Yordy Cabrera. Initial reactions tell me this is a huge win for the Athletics, and the Diamondbacks, and that the Marlins got nothing for a guy they signed just a year ago.

legacyme3 : Wait, does that mean Valentine is gone? I haven't heard anything about him, but I didn't expect him to stay. Anyway, that sounds good for the A's, but I didn't really notice how many outfielders that they had.

patar4097 :

Yeah, he was fired like a week or two ago. First thing the Red Sox did when the season ended.

legacyme3 : Wow, how did I not hear of that? At that time I was watching Sports Center 24/7. Maybe I just forgot.

Shohei Otani was selected first overall in the NPB draft.

This doesn't mean he's obligated to sign with the team that drafted him however.

For those unfamiliar with the name, Otani is an 18 year old Japanese phenom. Throws high 90's heat, topping out at around 100 mph. Not much more is known without the ability to look into his japanese high school baseball records, but from general scouting reports and witness reports, he's quite the potential steal.

Since the CBA has changed how much teams can spend on international free agents, virtually anyone has a real legit chance of signing him. However, this does nothing to remove the possibility of exploiting loopholes or using under the table money.

The three teams most heavily linked to him are the Dodgers, Rangers, and Red Sox, though I have to imagine every team will be after him.

This is because, as an amateur, he isn't neccesarily guaranteed a major league contract, meaning he can be stored in the minor league system of any team that wishes to acquire him for the next few years.

Regardless of where he ends up, he'd be among the top couple prospects for any team.

I wonder if it would be a smarter career move for Otani to play in the NPB or to sign with a MLB team. In the NPB, he would see legitimate action sooner and probably make more initial money, playing for Hokkaido. The reason I say this is because in the MLB, he's going to be in the minors first and thus have a lesser contract, I'd imagine. It could take him a while to get to the major league level since MLB teams don't start players under 24 or so.

Now obviously once he does reach the major league level, his earning potential exceeds that of what he'd have in Japan. While Japanese baseball is pretty big and popular... it's still not the grand stage that is American baseball. MLB contracts can be ridiculously large if you have the talent.

It's not like you can't show off in Japan for a while making good money and THEN switch over to the MLB... but Otani doesn't seem to want to play for the NPB at all. He's also more appealing to MLB clubs right now because they can sign him for cheap and without a posting fee. If he actually plays baseball in Japan at all, then they need that posting fee in order to sign him.

He does have time to make up his mind though. I believe NPB rules dictate that the drafting team has exclusive negotiating rights until the end of March. While the MLB is not held to these rules, they have a tendency to respect them because we have a good relation with NPB. I think Japan's pissed off enough that we're taking all their talent so encroaching on that exclusive time would be a move that perhaps severs relations between the two leagues.

Crazy Li :

Well, if he plans to have a career in MLB at any point, I say he should go to America now, and get acclimated to the American game as soon as possible, in the minor leagues. The biggest pitfall japanese pitchers face when switching to the American game is the work load and size of the ball.

This has led to Daisuke Matsuzaka, Yu Darvish, and several other japanese pitchers to have a rather high walk rate. However, some manage to get by these, and adjust quickly, like Hiroki Kuroda, however, his age may play a role in how he throws, as many of the younger pitchers have a tendency to overthrow, since they are so used to harder workloads in Japan.

I mean, a perfect case is Daisuke Matsuzaka really.

When Daisuke came over to America all those years ago, he was highly touted, and had impressive stats to go with the name.

So what went wrong?

In Japan, as said, they are far more used to advanced work loads, at young ages no less. They throw more pitches over the course of one year, than some major league pitchers do in 2 or 3. On their off days they go beyond what they really should, leading to shoulder and forearm issues later on in their careers, around their 30s (like Daisuke).

This added work load, combined with having to adjust to a slightly bigger baseball. I think it's only like a 1/4 or 1/8 inch of circumference different, but it's enough that it can change how your release point on the ball if affected.

Some people dispute the balls are about equal in specifications, but looking at the two side by side, I can't say I agree.

So why should Otani go straight to the American Minor leagues?

Without experience of NPB, and the need to get acclimated to their schedule, he'll be able to develop like most American prospects do.

If his goal is to have a strong major league career, then he should stick with going to the minors.

If his goal is to just simply make money, then yes, starting in NPB is probably the best avenue for him.

legacyme3 : Good point about the acclimation. I never thought about the workloads of NPB. Though you'd think having a lighter workload would be easier on the Japanese pitchers. I don't actually understand what goes wrong. If they're used to throwing more pitches in Japan, how do they injure themselves in America by throwing less?

Also, I'm curious about the reason why they throw more pitches in Japan. Do they throw more per game or do they start more frequently/on shorter rest? If it's the former, I would have expected this to be a benefit because it means they can go deeper into games than American pitchers tend to. Modern American pitching coaches seem to panic when a guy hits 100 pitches in a game as though his arm will fall off at that point. There was a time in major league baseball when starting pitchers would throw upwards into the 140 mark for pitches. That ability seems to be all but lost these days.

Crazy Li :

Yeah, you would think the lighter loads would make it easier on them in MLB.

I think of it like this. Whenever you throw a pitch, you are in reality moving a lot of different muscles, and when you finally release the pitch, it's like a snap. If you do this a lot, you will feel pain, right?

You get so acclimated to the pain that sometimes you become numb to it, and continue anyway, causing long term damage to the body. The other effect to this, is that in this instance, adrenaline is a drug. When you are always in that game time mindset, you are constantly tensed up. This makes it so when you aren't tensed up, you feel alien. It actually has a way of taking more of a toll on your body than straight up heavier workloads do, in a weird sort of way.

Some pitchers have the experience to know their limits like Hiroki Kuroda and Koji Uehara. Others like Daisuke and Darvish do not, so they tried to adjust. Daisuke was an utter failure, at least in Boston. I'm curious to see if he gets another shot at it elsewhere. Darvish however, has found a way to have high walk rates, and succeed, not dissimilar to Gio Gonzalez. (not this year though, lower walk rates for Gio!)

They throw more in Japan because that's just their culture. By nature they are a lot harder working than Americans. It's also a combination of both things you said I think. Since they have a hard inning/time limit, their managers are more likely to try and make them go the distance. Their games can end in ties.

The White Sox have apparently signed a two year, $29MM extension with Jake Peavy, that also has an option for 2015.

mlb789 :

You'll be happy to hear that.

legacyme3 :   Good news:  We got Peavy back (you wanted him anyways).
Bad news:  He's worth 15mil per two years, not 29 over 2.
Overpaying will kill us next year.

Oldschool41 :

Yes, and no, it's high.

I don't think Peavy is elite, so he's not really deserving of it on one hand... but on the other, in the open market, he could have possibly gotten more. Especially from teams like the Red Sox, Angels... etc.

It was a good move by the White Sox to lock him up, but a poor move to give him so much.

Some time today it was announced that Jim Leyland, Dotel, and Peralta are going to be back with the Tigers next year, while Delmon Young and Jose Valverde aren't coming back. And it's unlikely that the Tigers get Sanchez back. There's the Detroit Tiger news for you.