January 2023 has been active for severe weather reports including tornadoes. In fact, January has had above average activity. As of this writing 55 tornadoes have been confirmed. With severe weather chances on Thursday and into next week. I am sure that number will rise.

It is really unusual to have this many tornadoes in January. What is also unusual is where the tornadoes occurred. Tornadoes in January are typically limited to the Gulf Coast and the state of California.

All of the 55 tornadoes confirmed occurred from January 2nd-4th. These tornadoes occurred in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Kentucky, Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee. Now Mississippi, and Alabama are no strangers to January tornadoes. But the other places usually do not see an uptick in activity until February.

A storm system like the one that occurred on the 2nd-4th was a month ahead concerning tornado reports. So why has there been so many tornadoes for January.

Well you have to understand the dynamics in place. Right now the jet stream is farther south. Then you have several storm systems coming into the Pacific Southwest. A lot of these storms have originated from the Central Pacific. This is sometimes called the Pineapple Express. The Jet stream is taking these storms systems across the southern half of the USA.

To have tornadoes, you need cold air colliding with warm air. This can be at the surface or in the atmosphere. You need wind energy and wind shear. You also need instability and moisture.

These fronts move across the southern part of the USA they tap into the above average temps from the Gulf of Mexico. Water temps in the Gulf are above average due to an ongoing La Nina. This provides warm air and fuel for storms to develop.

These storms also have wind energy behind them. Then they pull cold air from the Rocky Mountains behind them. The cold air collides with the warmer air causing instability.

The Jet stream takes them over states such as Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Georgia. This is why these storm systems are producing tornadoes even in January.

Lets look at the storm system from Jan 2nd-4th.

The storm system moved into Texas. Behind this storm system was cold air from the Rocky Mountains. Ahead was very warm air from the Gulf. This storm system had a lot of wind energy with it. The turning of the winds at the surface created wind shear. Ingredients were conducive for the development of tornadoes. As the storm system moved eastward the storms became linear producing damaging winds and tornadoes. The jet stream allowed this storm system to behave like a February or even March storm system.

That is why tornadoes occurred a little bit farther north than they normally do for the month of January.

With the jet stream being active and above water temps in the gulf providing the fuel. The chances for severe weather in January should continue. This is why we have seen above average activity for tornadoes in January.

I've taken a weather class before, and we did learn a good bit about tornados, but your post certainly taught me some new things.

I live in Alabama, and the amount of tornado warnings, let alone tornados, has gone up significantly over the four years I've lived here. It's scary to think of this shift of more severe weather as unstoppable, as the midwest and south might be uninhabitable if this continues.

Well, maybe for me, but people will always stay. Just look at Florida.

Barathemos : I'm from Tennessee. Normally we get hammered from Mid February to June. Then we have a second peak in October and November.

Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Louisiana form a tornado alley known as Dixie Alley.

Dixie Alley has been very active the past few years. While tornadoes can occur when conditions are right. It seems Dixie Alley has been very active in La Nina years. La Nina's occurred from 2010-2012, 2016-2018, and 2020 to present.

As a meteorologists I find it interesting how things are changing. You took a weather class that is cool.

My area of Tennessee tends to get a lot of weather from Northern Alabama