The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season concluded on November 30th. Since then the National Hurricane Center has been reanalyzing the storms in post season analysis. I'm going to be discussing the season in general, all of the storms, and which names might be retired in Spring of 2024.


Hurricane season officially starts on June 1st and goes to November 30th. The peak months are August, September, and October. In fact, the peak season is August 15th-October 20th. Typically, in an average season there is 14 named storms, 7 becoming hurricanes, and 3 become major hurricanes, categories 3, 4 and 5. An average season's total Accumulated Cyclonic Energy will be between 95-115.

The 2023 Atlantic Season started off early as an unnamed storm developed in January. The 2023 season was going to be influenced by an El Nino. Normally a moderate to strong El Nino would lead to below average activity in the Atlantic. However, water temperatures were way above average. That is why the season was above average despite El Nino conditions. Overall the 2023 season was above average with 20 named storms, 7 became hurricanes, and 3 became major hurricanes. The season's total accumulated cyclonic energy was 146.

Here is my summary on the season's tropical systems.

Sub Tropical Storm #1 (1/16th-1/18th) peak winds 70 mph pressure 976 millibars. This unnamed storm developed off the east coast of the United States and did not impact land.

Tropical Storm Arlene (6/1-6/3rd) Peak winds 40 mph pressure 998 millibars. Arlene developed in the Gulf of Mexico and slowly drifted southward. Arlene was not able to become organized due to very dry air and did not impact land.

Tropical Storm Bret (6/19-6/24) Peak winds 70 mph pressure 996 millibars. Bret formed in the far Atlantic and unusual spot for June. Typically the far Atlantic does not see development till August-Early October. Bret did not impact any land.

Tropical Storm Cindy (6/22-6/26) peak winds 60 mph pressure 1004 millibars. Cindy also formed in the Far Atlantic but did not impact any land.

Hurricane Don (7/14-7/24) peak winds 75 mph category 1, and pressure 986 millibars. Don formed in the Central Atlantic and slowly moved northward. While going over the gulf stream Don became a hurricane. Don did not impact any land.

Tropical Storm Emily (8/20-8/21) peak winds 50 mph pressure 998 millibars. Short lived tropical storm that did not impact any land.

*Hurricane Franklin (8/20-9/1) peak winds 150 mph, category 4, and pressure 926 millibars. Franklin developed in the Caribbean and became a tropical storm. The tropical storm made landfall in the Dominican Republic. After moving away from the Dominican Republic and going over the Gulf Stream. Franklin rapidly intensified. Franklin would become a category 4 hurricane. In the Dominican Republic Franklin caused $90 million in damages and 2 deaths.

Tropical Storm Gert (8/19-9/4) peak winds 60 mph pressure 998 millibars. Gert was a long lived tropical storm that did not impact any land.

Tropical Storm Harold (8/21-8/23) peak winds 50 mph pressure 996 millibars. Harold developed in the Gulf of Mexico. Harold would eventually make landfall in Texas. Harold caused 2 drowning deaths.

*Hurricane Idalia (8/26-8/31) peak winds 130 mph, category 4, and pressure 940 millibars. Idalia developed in the Caribbean. The hurricane entered in the Gulf of Mexico and intensified reaching a peak of 130 mph. Idalia made landfall in Perry Florida as a 125 mph category 3 hurricane. Overall, Idalia caused $4 Billion in damages, and 10 deaths.

Tropical Storm Jose (8/29-9/1) peak winds 65 mph pressure 998 millibars. Jose stayed in the far Atlantic and did not impact any land.

Tropical Storm Katia (9/1-9/4) peak winds 60 mph and pressure 999 millibars. Katia stayed out to sea and did not impact any land.

*Hurricane Lee (9/5-9/16) peak winds 165 mph, category 5, and pressure 926 millibars. Hurricane Lee was the strongest hurricane of the season. Lee for the most part stayed out to sea. Lee would reach a peak of 165 mph.

Hurricane Margot (9/7-9/16) peak winds 90 mph, category 1, and pressure 969 millibars. Margot was a hurricane that stayed out to sea.

Hurricane Nigel (9/15-9/22) peak winds 100 mph, category 2, and pressure 971 millibars. Nigel was a category 2 hurricane that stayed out to sea.

Tropical Storm Ophelia (9/22-9/24) max winds 70 mph pressure 981 millibars. Ophelia was a tropical storm that developed off the Southeast Coast. The storm made landfall in North Carolina. Overall Ophelia caused $450 million in damages.

Tropical Storm Phillippe (9/23-10/6) max winds 50 mph and pressure 996 millibars. Long lived tropical storm that did not impact any land.

Tropical Storm Rina (9/28-10/1) max winds 50 mph pressure 1004 millibars. Rina stayed out to sea.

Tropical Storm Sean (10/11-10/16) max winds 45 mph pressure 1004 millibars. Sean stayed out to sea

Hurricane Tammy (10/18-10/29) max winds 105 mph, category 2, and pressure 965 millibars. Tammy was a category 2 hurricane that came close to the Antilles, but did not come ashore. Therefore, there was no impact.

Which storms could be retired?

Despite above average activity a lot of the hurricanes stayed out to sea. The only storm that had a huge impact was hurricane Idalia. If any storm's name gets retired it would be Idalia. I would say Idalia has a 50% chance of getting retired. Idalia was destructive and powerful. However, Idalia made landfall in a rural area which lowered the damage total. Recent storms have caused similar damage and did not get their names retired.

In conclusion, the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season was above average despite an El Nino. The above average water temperatures allowed tropical systems to develop. Before the season started I had forecasted an above average season. In August I release my second and final forecast for the season still calling for an above average season.

Wow thank you for that information. It sounds like it's a good thing that Hurricane Lee did not touch land. What are the circumstances behind hurricanes forming and how certain hurricanes become larger than others and actually hit land?

dkmec20: In order for a hurricane to form you need all the ingredients. First, Hurricanes need water temperatures of at least 80 degrees F or 27 degrees C to maintain or strengthen. But the atmosphere around them needs to be moist, and there needs to be light shearing winds.

Most hurricanes originate from tropical lows during the Hurricane Season in the Atlantic. When these lows enter favorable environments the Cornelius affect allows the low to rotate. If conditions are right the low strengthens. Once the Low becomes closed off at the surface and reaches at least 39 mph it is given a name. If the tropical storm reaches 74 mph it is a hurricane. Remember a tropical storm or hurricane has thunderstorms around its center. If the Hurricane is in a favorable environment new thunderstorms can develop expanding the hurricane.

Since 1995 we have been in the second active phase of the Atlantic Ocean. The First Active Phase was from 1925-1969. Based on my own research the rate that tropical storms become hurricanes and hurricanes becoming major hurricanes (categories 3, 4, and 5) are almost the same.

But what we are seeing is hurricanes lasting longer and maintaining their strength more. Hurricanes also appear to be larger. There are two theories.

One theory is its Global Warming all the way- This has become so political and there are a lot of extremists groups out there. It has not helped the message. The theory is Global Warming is causing the ocean temperatures to warm. Thus, hurricanes due to going over warmer water are not only able to maintain their strength more but grow in size.

However, another theory is its a natural cycle and a series of La Nina's. La Nina is the opposite of El Nino. For the Atlantic La Nina causes warmer than average water temperatures, less wind shear and more moist air. This is also likely why we are seeing hurricanes last longer. It is also why we have seen above average seasons.

The first active phase was believed to have seen a lot of Neutral or La Nina events. Neutral is when neither La Nina or El Nino Present. Neutral tends to favor average to slightly above average tropical activity in the Atlantic.

La Nina's have occurred in 1995/1996, 1998- early 2001, 2005, 2007/2008, 2010- spring 2012, 2016/2017, and 2020-2022

Neutral conditions were present during the hurricane seasons of 2001, 2003, 2012, and 2019.

All of these seasons I listed since 1995 had above average activity.

In my opinion I think its a both. Global warming is real. The question is, is it all man made, all natural, or a mix of both. I tend to believe its a natural event mixed with human influence. I think this along with the Active phase is why we are seeing larger hurricanes than we did in the first active phase. Basically, in my opinion and based on my own research its a mix of both.