If you have followed my posts you probably have heard me talk about La Nina, El Nino and Neutral conditions. These conditions naturally occur in the ENSO region (Equatorial Pacific). These conditions can greatly impact weather patterns and hurricane seasons. La Nina is when water temperatures in the ENSO are colder than -0.5°C below average for a minimum of 4-6 months. El Nino is when water temperatures are above 0.5°C from average for a minimum of 4-6 months. Neutral is when neither La Nina nor El Nino are present. Water temperatures will be between -0.5 to 0.5°C from average. Basically, water temperatures are close to average in the ENSO region.

The Atlantic Basin is impacted by these cycles. La Nina tends to favor above average hurricane activity in the Atlantic. Neutral will favor average to slightly above average activity. El Nino favors below average activity. El Nino typically causes cooler water, more dry air and shearing winds in the Atlantic. This is why El Nino's normally suppress activity. The 1957, 1962, 1965, 1968, 1972, 1977, 1982, 1983, 1986, 1987, 1991, 1997, 2006, 2009, 2014 and 2015 Hurricane seasons had below average activity due to an El Nino.

However, there have been instances where the Hurricane Season has featured average to above average activity despite El Nino conditions in the ENSO. The reason I'm focusing on El Nino is because the 3 year La Nina event (2020-2023) faded. We are now in an El Nino pattern it will be interesting to see how that impacts the hurricane season. Despite being in an El Nino pattern water temperatures in the Atlantic remain above average.

Anyway, here are seasons that had average to above average activity during an El Nino pattern during the Hurricane Season which runs from June 1st to November 30th.

1951 season. The La Nina of 1949 to 1950 faded. By the time hurricane season rolled around an El Nino had developed. The season was above average with 12 named storms, 8 becoming hurricanes and 3 became major hurricanes. One reason for above average activity was above average water temperatures.

1963 season. The 1963 season was average with 10 named storms, 7 becoming hurricanes and 3 becoming major hurricanes. The El Nino from 1962 started to fade in the summer and fall of 1963. The El Nino during the 1963 season was weak. This is why there was average activity. This season featured one of the Atlantic's deadliest hurricanes. Hurricane Flora caused 7,200 deaths. Flora decimated Haiti, Cuba, and other Caribbean nations. In Haiti alone over 6,200 people were killed.

1969- This was a rare El Nino called the Modoki El Nino. This is a type of El Nino that behaves like a La Nina. In the Atlantic it causes very favorable conditions for hurricane development. In 1969 there was a total of 18 named storms, 12 became hurricanes, and 3 became major hurricanes. This season also featured one of the strongest hurricanes to impact the USA. Hurricane Camille made landfall in Mississippi as a category 5 hurricane.

2002- During 2002 a moderate to strong El Nino started to show signs of developing. By the end of September El Nino was in full throttle. Despite El Nino developing during the peak of the hurricane season August, September and October. The 2002 season was an average season with 12 named storms. One reason the season was average despite a moderate to strong El Nino was above average water temperatures in the Atlantic. This season featured destructive hurricanes, Isidore, and Lili.

2004- This was another rare Modoki El Nino. Once again the 2004 season behaved like a La Nina would. This season was very destructive and had way above average activity. Overall, there was 15 named storms, 9 became hurricanes and 6 reached major hurricane status. This season featured 4 powerful hurricanes that made landfall in Florida. The destructive hurricanes where Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne. All 4 of these storms had their names retired.

2018- The La Nina of Summer 2016 to Spring 2018 faded. El Nino showed signs of developing. By October El Nino had developed. Despite El Nino developing due to a moist atmosphere and above average water temperatures the 2018 season had above average activity. Overall, 15 named storms developed, 8 became hurricanes and 2 became major hurricanes. These season produced Florence and Michael. Florence decimated the state of North Carolina. While Michael made landfall in Florida as a category 5 hurricane.

Its hard to tell how the 2023 hurricane season will be. Above average water temperatures are concerning. In fact, the warm temperatures could allow an above average season despite being in an El Nino pattern. On the other hand, El Nino may suppress activity. This is a season that could go either way.

This was a very interesting read. For those who live on the coast, I hope the hurricane season ends up NOT being a devastating one.

gamerforlifeforever: I hope so too it would be nice if they all stayed out to sea. The Gulf, East Coast, and Territories have taken a beating over the past 7 years. Hurricanes: Matthew, Harvey, Irma, Maria, Florence, Michael, Laura, Ida, Fiona and Ian have all been destructive.

This is why you always have to be prepared as all it takes is just one storm to make it a bad year.

oh so it was La Nina that was going on in 2020 because I was just about to ask explain that there were so many Cat 3+ hurricanes that year (2020 am I right?)

classgame: You would be correct. In 2020 30 named storms formed, 14 became hurricanes and 7 became major hurricanes. 2005 and 2020 have the record for most major hurricanes. In 2020 there were some category 4 hurricanes as well. Hurricanes Laura, Teddy, Eta, and Iota achieved category 4 status.

Moderate to strong La Nina's tend to favor above average hurricane seasons. Also they tend to favor more major hurricanes than average.

Now sometimes you can get a Modoki El Nino which behaves like a La nina even though it is not. As I stated in my post in 1969 and 2004. Despite being El Nino's there was several intense hurricanes.

Ah yes, i remember the 2004 hurricane pretty well. Me and my family moved to florida just after Charley hit. We weathered through Frances and Jeanne. You can say it was a nice Florida welcome lol.

Personally for me living through that season jump started my interest on meteorology. I enjoy looking into and studying every hurricane season. With August just around the corner lets see what the 2023 hurricane season has in store for us.

supercool22: The 2023 season is going to be tricky. Water temperatures are running several degrees above average. On the other hand, this is an El Nino year. It will be interesting to see which one wins out. In 2018 El Nino developed during the summer but it did not have an impact until November. By that time there was 15 named storms, so it did not have an impact.

As a Meteorologist I see a few things happening here.

The Warm water is enough to limit El Nino. In this case we would have average to above average activity.

Warm Water but El Nino causes dry air and shearing winds. We would have a below average season.

August, September and October are the peak months. That will tell what season we have.

Glad your survived 2004 Florida took a beating that year.