thing1 :

The only way the Mariners can make the playoffs?

It's not impossible, but it is incredibly unlikely. As it is, there are 3 teams competing for two spots. The Royals, Mariners, and A's, for the wild card spots. The Royals could beat out the Tigers for the Central, but if that happens, it will leave just the A's and Mariners fighting for the last spot.

The Mariners are at 84-75, with 3 games left, all against the Angels (the top team in the AL)
The A's are at 86-73, with 3 games left, all against the Rangers (the worst team in the AL)
The Royals are at 87-72, with 3 games left, all against the White Sox (a bad team)

Here are the scenarios that lead to the Mariners in the playoffs.

Mariners win out (3-0), A's lose out (0-3). Royals irrelevant.
Mariners win out (3-0), Royals lose out (0-3). A's irrelevant.
Mariners win out (3-0), A's win one (1-2). Royals irrelevant.
Mariners win 2 (2-1), A's lose out (0-3). Royals irrelevant.

Below, I'll go into what the impact on the playoffs would be, provided nothing else changes.

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In the first scenario, where the Mariners win out, and the A's lose out, the Mariners slide in just ahead of the Athletics for the second wild card. Odds are, the Royals would win the first wild card, and have home field advantage for the play in game. Also, in this scenario, if the Mariners win out, this means the Angels have lost all three games, opening the door for the Orioles to potentially steal homefield advantage if they also won out. However, this is nearly impossible, and there is very little chance that happens. (I'm not even sure what would happen in a tie, I've never looked into it, there would probably be a tiebreaker game).

If it does however, here are what the playoff matchups would be in each (We'll call the scenario where the Angels keep homefield Scenario 1A, as it is most likely, and the scenario where the Orioles steal homefield Scenario 1B.)

Scenario 1A - Angels v. Royals/Mariners, Orioles v. Tigers
Scenario 1B - Orioles v. Royals/Mariners, Angels v. Tigers

The odds of either scenario happening with the A's losing out and the Mariners winning out is almost 0. It's certainly below 1%, as the Mariners have to beat one of the best teams in baseball, and the A's have to avoid being swept by the worst team in the AL.

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In the second scenario, where the Mariners win out and the Royals lose out, making the A's almost completely irrelevant, there are three possible scenarios that diverge from this one. Scenario 2A would be that the A's win at least 2 of the 3 remaining games. Scenario 2B is that the A's win only 1 of the 3 games. Scenario C involves the A's losing all 3.

In Scenario 2A, the Athletics win the first wild card, and have homefield for the play in game. The Royals and Mariners would finish the season with the exact same record, and would have to play a game to determine who gets to go face the A's in the Wild Card game.

In Scenario 2B, the Athletics would finish with the exact same record as both the Royals and the Mariners, and I'm honestly not 100% sure what would happen here. You'd likely see the Athletics and Mariners play a game to determine who wins 2nd in the AL West. The winner of this game would be secured A wild card spot, and the loser would go on to play the Royals in a tiebreaker match to determine who wins the other wild card. Then the two wild card winners, because they are tied, would play a game to determine homefield for the Wild Card game. Then the wild card game would be played. (It's entirely possible to see the A's lose to the Mariners, beat the Royals, and have to face the Mariners again right after, just to play the Mariners ONE MORE TIME). From here, there are a lot of possibilities, but I won't diverge the timeline further.

In Scenario 2C is basically exactly the same as both Scenario 1's. The only variance is that you are taking into account the Royals record the rest of the way, as they would technically tie with the Mariners for the first wild card, as opposed to winning it outright.

Just like with Scenario 1, if the Mariners win out, it means the Angels lose out. So it's possible the Orioles win homefield in the below playoff matchups below. But for the sake of sanity, I won't list that universe, and only the universe where the Angels keep the homefield advantage. Just be aware that the alternative of the Orioles being the team the wild card winner faces.

Scenario 2A - Royals v. Mariners, Winner faces Athletics in Wild Card game. Winner of Wild Card game faces Angels.
Scenario 2B - Mariners v. Athletics. Winner wins a wild card. Loser faces Royals. Winner wins other wild card, and faces winner of first wild card for the 1st wild card. Winner wins 1st, loser wins 2nd, then they play another game(?) (It's far too confusing, and there are far too many possibilities, so let's hope THIS scenario doesn't happen).
Scenario 2C - see Scenario 1

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Scenario 3 is the one that I think is most likely of the 4, but is still very unlikely. At best. Basically, in this scenario, the Royals almost certainly win one game. If they do not, it reverts to scenario 2B, where crazy world happens.

If the Royals, do in fact, win a game, then the Mariners would tie the Athletics for record, and be forced to play each other in a tiebreaker game to determine who wins the second wild card. If the Mariners win, they'd face the Royals, who would have homefield. Same for the Athletics. The winner of that series would play the Angels, unless the Orioles win out. But let's not get into that. That's a can of worms we've already explored.

There are variances, of course, like what could happen in Scenario 2B.

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Scenario 4 is about as likely to actually happen as Scenario 3, in terms of possibility, if we accept flat numbers. But it is less likely to really happen, due to the fluctuating nature of teams. However, if the Mariners win 2 and the A's lose out, then it's the exact same as Scenario 3.

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Not being explored is the possibility the Mariners lose a game, and the A's win a game, as that would knock out the Mariners, obviously.

There are several scenarios where the M's make the playoffs, but their odds are extremely low. I'd go as far as saying there's a less than 1% chance it happens.

legacyme3 : Thanks, It makes a lot more sense to be now. I am happy the M's are still alive, but the possibility of it happening is just so out there, considered who the Mariners, A's and Royals have to play... Only way I can honestly see the Mariners making it is Scenario... 1. This being because the Royals are pretty much a lock. They won't rest starters since they still have a slim shot at the division. I highly Doubt the A's loosing out, or going 1-2 against Rangers, but still, I think scenario 1 is more likely. Tomorrow will tell us. If Seattle looses, it's over. I don't see Seattle making it going 2-1. I am not worried about KC. It's the A's that I am worried about. 

thing1 :

And that's how it should be.

But honestly, I think your chances of catching the Royals are slightly better. There's a game of difference, and the White Sox are more likely to beat the Royals than the Rangers are to beat the A's.

I don't think you guys have a chance anyways, even if you make it.

Urgh, come on Mariners. Going to suck if they come up 1 game short after playing so well then collapsing in September. That 1-0 loss to Toronto a few days ago especially hurts bad right now. They've won three in a row once the games turned into a win-or-eliminated situation, but is it too late now? 

Chewedmint : I don't know. I think it's looks promising. Seattle won today, and the A's pulled their starters in the 7th and the 8th. And, the A's have dropped the past 2 to keep Seattle alive. I think the A's know that even if they lose tomorrow, they have the 1 game playoff for the final spot with Seattle, even if it is with Seattle. Should be even more intense than it was yesterday today. 

If Seattle makes it and the eliminates the A's, its going to overall be a pretty big collapse considering how well the A's were playing for most of the season before they messed everything up.

For me, this was an interesting season with a lot of surprises everywhere. I'm going to celebrate the end of the regular season with possibly very good tickets to watch the Mets fight for 2nd.

   Well, the regular season is over. The A's were able to keep from a horrible downfall, and held onto the final spot without having to go to the one game playoff with the Mariners. Kansas City will take on the A's, and the winner will go up against the Angels, while the Tigers will go up against the O's. In the NL, the Pirates will go up against San Francisco, and the winner will go to Washington. The other series in the NL is the Cardinals vs. the Dodgers. 

   In other news, the D-backs fired Gibson, and the Twins let go of Gardenhire. It seems like the Twins would have gone with him one more year, since they seem to have some good players in their future, although it hasn't gone well for them the last few years. He always seemed like a good manager, and I'm sure he'll find somewhere else pretty quickly.

I was pretty content with what happened this year for my Mets. Tied for 2nd, tied for best record since 2008, and least GB since 2008. Not too mention possible rookie of the year as well as Golden Glove and Silver Slugger. It was a fun year, and the team had performed a lot better than what most people had expected and it's all because of the Nationals. They were 4-15 against the Nationals which means they were 75-68 against everyone else.

As upset as I am that Seattle did not make the playoffs, and the A's got knocked out already, I am pretty ecstatic that Seattle went over 500 for the first time in awhile. Also, we are finally looking like a Playoff team. This is huge for Seattle baseball. 

thing1 : Well, with the A's pretty much guaranteed to lose Lester at the end of the year, Seattle at this point looks like they would have a better chance to get in next year, but we'll figure out later on I guess, since it's practically impossible to say anything more on it at this point. Anyways, I'm going to close this thread now, with the real postseason starting tonight. Any predictions or anything like that can go in the playoff thread.

~Closed~